Jobs Report Sucker Punches Recovery!

In this column a few weeks ago I likened the economy and markets to being in the eye of a hurricane.

There had been some destruction in global stock markets created by the debt crisis in Europe, but the storm quieted down after the surprise EU/IMF announcement of a $1 trillion debt rescue plan. There was hope the danger had passed. But I suggested that, as in the eye of a hurricane, the other side of the storm was yet to arrive, and that sometimes it arrives with more fury than the first side.

It does seem we are now experiencing the back side of the financial storm and that it may indeed result in more serious damage.

The rescue package brought hope that the European debt crisis could be confined to Greece, that the European economic recovery would continue, that European banks would avoid serious fallout from the debt crisis.

The return of a positive outlook was in no small way related to confidence that the economic recovery in the U.S. would continue and become more robust, and that China’s strong economy would also continue to support the global recovery.

The Chinese stock market did not demonstrate the same confidence. It topped out last July and has been in a bear market since, having declined 27%. And in recent weeks it became clear what the Chinese stock market saw coming. The Chinese government has begun taking dramatic steps to take some air out of the Chinese real estate bubble, and stock markets are well aware of what happens to economies when real estate bubbles burst.

Meanwhile, the Greek debt crisis was contagious and spread to Portugal and Spain, with concerns rising about Ireland and Italy.

However, there was still confidence that the U.S. economy would continue to improve, even though some important parts of last year’s stimulus efforts, particularly for the housing industry, had expired at the end of April.

But then the latest economic reports began coming in.

In recent days it was reported that Pending Home Sales rose 6% in April, but that it was likely only due to a rush by home-buyers to get purchase contracts signed before the April 31 expiration of the home-buyer rebate program.

And sure enough, a few days later the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while overall mortgage applications had increased 0.9% in the last week of May, the increase had been due to existing home-owners applying to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Mortgage rates from those looking to buy a home, so-called ‘purchase applications’, had declined for the fourth straight week since the home-buyer bonus plan expired at the end of April, and are 40% below their level at the end of April. That cannot bode well for the next home sales reports.

Meanwhile, MasterCard’s SpendingPulse reported that retail sales in May were 3.7% below May of last year, the second month of declines after sales improved in the first quarter.

Consumers and the stock market really needed a strong employment report to offset those negative reports, if confidence that the economy continues to improve was to be kept alive.

Unfortunately, the jobs report Friday morning was dismal. The Labor Department reported that only 431,000 new jobs were created in May versus the consensus forecast of 515,000. And most of the new jobs, 411,000, were temporary census-taker jobs. Minus those, there were only 20,000 new jobs created. An awful report.

The unemployment rate did decline to 9.7% from the previous 9.9%. But even that was questionable as a positive, since it was primarily due to 322,000 unemployed dropping out of the unemployment picture because they gave up looking for a job.

Adding to the concerns, ill-winds continued to blow in from Europe with the statement of an official in Hungary that his country now faces a debt crisis similar to that of Greece.

The back side of hurricanes do pass, and the continuation of the financial hurricane will also pass. But the stock market must now worry about the damage that it leaves behind, not so much whether it has raised the odds of the economy sliding back into a double-dip recession, but the damage it has done to forecasts of a V-shaped recovery and the robust improvements in corporate earnings that have been factored into stock prices.

How to Lead Your Team Through a Crisis

The ability to lead becomes incredibly apparent during times of crisis. The 2009 global financial system meltdown is a good case in point. Watching good and bad leaders during times of crisis provides us with lessons on how to act when faced with our own moments of crisis.

As a leader, there are critical attributes that you need to master in order to successfully navigate you’re your team and organization through the turbulence of a crisis into the tranquility of a stable environment.

These attributes are:-

i. Ability to stay calm

Who wants to have a leader who panics in times of crisis? To be an effective leader, you need to learn how to detach yourself from the emotions of the daily ups and downs of life. This is a fundamental characteristic of a strong leader in times of crisis. Consider relinquishing your leadership mantle to someone else if you get struck by bouts of panic during times of crisis

ii. Ability to identify and fix the pressing problem

It is not wise reacting to symptoms of a problem without getting to the problem itself. As a leader, you need to accurately diagnose the root of the problem and fix it. Time is very critical during a crisis. Sometimes there may be need to deal with the symptom because of the present impact. However, you must never cool off and stop at this. You need to dig deep into the root problem and solve it.

It is important to deal as much as possible with facts rather than opinions. When you are trying to project what may happen in the future, consider seeking the opinions of many especially those who have a good track record of understanding how the forces at play are likely to interact.

iii. Ability to consult and seek advice

Conventional wisdom demands that you seek advice especially when a crisis checks in. During this time, unintentional results of your actions can have a more immediate impact. You should draw a line between seeking advice and seeking a consensus. It is advisable that you decide solely rather than jointly. Before making a decision, you need to have the facts about the crisis and the potential aftermath of actions or inactions observed from as many viewpoints as possible.

iv. Ability to think strategically

In time of crisis, thinking about big issues while letting smaller ones look after themselves is absolutely critical. You need to get the right big picture rather than getting the big picture absolutely right. This is the time to make a decision about the right things, of course without forgetting the importance of the executing detail.

v. Ability to be authentic

You can not afford to posture when you are in a crisis. It is time to say what you mean and mean exactly what you say, period. Never let your team take a second guessing what your intentions might be. Clearly say if you are taking a calculated risk or are not sure about the answer. Use clear and simple language as obtuse language has a tendency of leaving people confused besides opening your message to various interpretations.

Be conscious about your body language as well since a feeble look will cast doubt on your level of conviction and ability to see a crisis through.

vi. Ability to communicate

Talk it all to your team. Inform your team about what you know, what you do not know and what you are doing about what you must know. Tell your team about your decisions and why you make them. Reiterate your message as saying it once may at times not be enough. Use all effective mediums as well as different communication styles to ensure that as many people as possible get the correct message.

Risk Management Should Be Top of Mind – Stop Making Excuses

The global financial crisis is a perfect example of what can happen when nations and companies ignore risks (read: do not heed the warning signs) in the hope that the inevitable will not and can not happen. There is no time like the present to implement the company contingency plan. Below is a framework to help your team start the process of developing a risk management program. Not only is it the smart thing to do; it is the right thing to do.

Step One: Bite the bullet and get started. If you are like most companies, identifying potential risks is probably the hardest part of developing a risk management scenario. In fact, this is cited as the main reason why most companies put it off. Not only is this just an excuse; it is lazy and irresponsible thinking. If your management team is at a loss as to how to get started, you are in luck. Standard & Poor (S&P) has created a list of four major risk categories that can be just the springboard you need to hold your first brainstorming session. Listed in alphabetically order, they are:

Environmental Risks:

  • Business continuity
  • Business market environment
  • Environmental
  • Liability lawsuits
  • Natural disaster/ weather
  • Pandemic
  • Physical damage
  • Political risk
  • Regulatory/ legislative
  • Terrorism

Financial Risks:

  • Capital availability
  • Credit counter party
  • Financial market risk
  • Inflation
  • Interest rates
  • Liquidity

Management Risks:

  • Corporate governance
  • Data security
  • Employee health and safety
  • Intellectual property
  • Labor disputes
  • Labor skills shortage
  • M&A/restructuring
  • Managing complexity
  • Outsourcing problems
  • Project management
  • Reputation

Supply Risks:

  • Commodity prices
  • Supply chain

Step Two: After your team has reviewed the list, it is now time to check off the risks that apply, even tangentially, to your company.

Step Three: Review the S&P list again to see which of the risks may be catastrophic and damaging to your company. These risks warrant further consideration even if the likelihood of their occurring is low.

Step Four: Using consensus, identify three to five of the most critical risks your company faces.

Step Five: Create an action plan that deals with the critical risks you have identified. The action plan should include next steps and target dates.

Step Six: Follow up on the action plan that you just created. Make sure it is executed properly.

Step Seven: Evaluate whether your next step is to dig deeper into the action plan you have created, add additional projects to the plan, or create a more robust action plan. The first two choices suggest that you begin the process again, starting at step two. Alternatively, if you need to consider a full-blown risk management system, move forward knowing you have benefited from the initial work.

Risk management takes time, but think of the alternative. You do not want to be in a position of would have, could have, should have – if only we knew. There are many outside resources that can help you get started, so do not delay this call to action. You owe it to yourself and your shareholders.

When the economic climate changes as dramatically and as frequently as it does nowadays, contingency planning and risk management should be on every executive dashboard. Face your risks squarely and come up with a flexible ERM plan. Do not wait until you are forced to make a Mayday call to a world that is embroiled in its own crisis.

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